Open Kernel Labs Blog

January 04, 2011

Mobile/Wireless Weather Forecast for 2011: Clouds (of course) with Prevailing Enterprise Mobility

Despite three years of global financial bleakness, 2010 brought huge growth to mobile/wireless. Global handset shipments rose to more than 1.3 billion units (Nokia), over 20% of them smartphones (Gartner). But the news this last year wasn’t just about volume – the mobile market (finally) changed its focus from hardware to software – news about applications and app stores rained from the headlines and tens of thousands of new mobile applications showered consumers and businesses.  

Virtualization, End-to-end

Most forecasts for 2011 highlight evolved Cloud Computing as the weather pattern for the coming year. However, the impact of a robust and ubiquitous Cloud is mostly indirect for mobile/wireless: it lets developers and enterprise IT continue application-centric mobile strategies or move to thin clients using HTML5 or enablers like Citrix Receiver. It also lets mobile workers connect transparently to corporate Clouds and data centers, rain or shine, inside the office or on the road.

It’s axiomatic that Cloud Computing is enabled by virtualization: hardware virtualization, platform virtualization, and application virtualization (H/P/SaaS). We’re already seeing virtualization of enterprise desktops and increasingly ubiquitous desktop-hosted virtualization for interoperability. In 2011, the paradigm of end-to-end virtualization will also encompass mobile end-points to meet enterprise, government, SMB, and end user needs for security, interoperability, and cost-savings.  My company, OK Labs, supplies the leading mobile virtualization solution, OKL4.

Enterprise Mobility

In 2010, enterprise employees increasingly worked outside corporate headquarters yielding enhanced productivity from use of mobile computing and communications, sourced both from traditional IT channels and from end user acquisition (BYOD). A new meme, Enterprise Mobility, encapsulates this trend, precipitating key requirements from enterprise IT – especially for device security.  

The coming year will see the barometer rise for Enterprise Mobility – organizations previously prohibiting mobile access to corporate assets will embrace, sanction, and support it. Security will remain the biggest challenge; tools for sustaining Enterprise Mobility will include mobile versions of existing end point security (anti-virus, device wipe, etc.), mobile device management (MDM) suites, with underlying architectural innovation based on mobile virtualization.

A Sea of Smartphones

In 2010, worldwide smartphone deployments are forecast to top 250 million units. While this volume might constitute a burgeoning mass-market phenomenon, relatively pricey smartphones remain beyond the reach (or discretion) of most consumers.

In 2011, smartphone sales soar on this virtualization updraft. Enhancing organic segment growth will be sharp declines in acquisition costs: OEMs will build and sell cheaper smartphones through dramatic reductions in handset Bills-of-Material (BoM). Merging multiple legacy chipsets (baseband, application processing, etc.) onto a single mainstream ARM CPU lets OEMs ship sleeker devices – smartphone functionality at featurephone prices. Critical to BoM consolidation is mobile virtualization, lending hardware independence to mobile platforms and enabling diverse legacy software to run on a single CPU.

4G, 4 Real

In 2010, operators began tentative 4G rollouts with overhyped interim data services. 2011 will bring actual 4G LTE networks into service, but still without the promised revolution in user experience. Current handset designs throttle 4G bandwidth by limiting wireless input/output concurrency – slinging packets upstream and down at high speeds (megabits, not kilobits/second) is the hallmark of LTE. 

To address this need for speed, OEMs will start designing and deploying 4G phones using multicore silicon, enabled by mobile virtualization. This dynamic duo will help OEMs and operators deliver on promises of 4G data rates in late 2011 through 2012.

Mainstream Multicore in Mobile

High-end smartphones already deploy multicore ARM CPUs to run applications OSes (and nothing else). The coming year will see dual-core silicon drop in price, with 2012 bringing 3x and 4x CPUs, including processors built on ARM Cortex-A15. As multicore chipsets go mainstream in 2011, extra computing power will consolidate gains by mass-market smartphones, enhancing the user experience without impacting price.

The future of multicore in mobile is sunny – more computing power at mass market price points. Challenges do arise from added complexity – taking full advantage of new silicon resources without introducing software vulnerabilities: shortening battery life or slowing delivery. A powerful tool for taming this complexity is mobile virtualization.

Metatrend – Synergy Powered by Virtualization

Distinct trends for 2011 and beyond reinforce one another like converging fronts: virtualization enables Cloud Computing, multicore supports 4G, LTE data rates accelerate Enterprise Mobility adoption, etc. In synergy, mass-market smartphones drive application sales and apps marketplaces create pull for smartphones running those apps.

Across the ecosystem, from silicon to software to services, the most significant enabler is virtualization:  virtualization in the Cloud and data center, on the desktop and in ubiquitous handsets. Mobile virtualization is not new – over a billion phones already deploy my company’s OKL4 Microvisor. In 2011, mobile virtualization will reach its actual potential, reinforcing the above trends and other types of innovation.

So don’t forget your sunglasses at home – 2011 will be a super bright year for mobile virtualization.

Posted by Steve Subar on January 04 at 07:44 AM

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About Steve Subar:

Steve Subar, CEO and President of OK Labs, has been an honored leader in the technology industry for 20 plus years and has received several accolades for his work. Steve is an avid runner who can also be found communing with his surfboard in Bondi Beach, Australia; skiing the slopes of Beaver Creek, Colorado; or searching for the perfect Pinot Noir all over the world.

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